After two weeks of intense debate plus a 30-hour overrun, COP29 ended with a global agreement on climate finance. CAT’s Paul Allen, an official observer, reflects on the key challenges being discussed and explores what needs to happen next.

Despite the frustrations, the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP) process is the only global mechanism we have for protecting the planet and the space it provides for human life. My role as an official observer was to virtually attend many of the negotiations where groups and blocs from across the globe came together to agree what must be done. The key challenges are increasing the speed of emissions reductions, scaling-up adaptation to help people cope with extreme weather, and providing support mechanisms to deal with the loss and damage experienced by communities across the globe.

Reducing emissions

Following the landmark 1.5°C Paris Agreement, every five years countries must ratchet up their commitments to reduce emissions, called nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The next round of NDCs, which sets targets to 2035, must be submitted by February.

In the run up to each COP, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) releases its annual Emissions Gap Report. This year it was titled No more hot air… please! making a clear case that nations must commit to dramatically increase the ambition of their NDCs or the 1.5°C goal will soon be beyond reach.

Taking advice from the Climate Change Committee, the Energy Security and Net Zero Secretary Ed Miliband submitted the UK’s ambitious new NDC during COP29 committing to slashing greenhouse gases by 81% from 1990 levels by 2035. CAT welcomes this commitment, but delivery must be rooted in an equitable plan. People and communities across the UK must be invited to join the journey, exploring ways to use the income from clean energy to deliver benefits in lifestyles, employment, resilience and provision of the skills needed.

By the end of COP29, three new NDCs had been submitted, by the UK, UAE and Brazil. At the time of writing, we wait to hear from other countries.

Adaptation

Adaptation is not an option. It is a necessity. This is because protection for vulnerable areas is now urgent. Released just before COP29, the UN Adaptation Gap Report 2024: Come hell and high water makes it clear that nations must dramatically increase adaptation.

A key barrier for many developing nations is the finance required. Unlike investing in renewables or saving energy, adaptation does not directly earn a return but helps prevent the future costs of loss and damage.

Loss and damage

The growing direct costs to infrastructure, livelihoods, natural systems and economies from extreme weather often exceeds what communities can cope with. This is a growing global challenge which demands increased financial support. Throughout COP29 I witnessed deeply moving stories of the impacts from countries across the globe and a growing recognition that the current loss and damage fund must be scaled up.

Talking finance

Back in 2009, at COP15 wealthy nations agreed to deliver $30 billion annually, rising to $100 billion by 2020, to enable developing nations to deal with climate change. Although the wealthier countries did finally meet this in 2022, it has now become clear it falls far short of what is needed. For the first COP in 15 years, delegates had to agree a “new collective quantified climate finance goal”.

As the negotiations rolled on, new finance goals were called for, in the order of $1.3 trillion per year. Some NGOs and negotiator blocs also expressed concerns that including too much in private sector loans could drive developing countries deeper into debt.

After two weeks of intense discussions, the negotiations overran by more than 30 hours. Although COP29 recognised the $1.3 trillion annual target by 2035, only $300 billion per year is set to come from grants and low-interest loans from developed countries.

While this may be presented as a significant rise in support for poorer countries hard hit by climate change, it is nowhere near enough. India was one of the many countries not happy with this deal, stating, “This, in our opinion, will not address the enormity of the challenge we all face.”

Although the wealthier countries agreed to take the lead, other countries were encouraged to make voluntary contributions. This highlighted a need to update the language used. For example, the COP process still defines China and India as ‘developing’ countries without obligation to provide finance. Today, China is one of the largest economies, so in the COP29 agreement, its support was included in the finance target.

Things must be improved by COP30

Solutions are not happening fast enough. Climate finance needs to be real money, not loans. The increase should be much higher to meet the actual needs of vulnerable and impacted countries, include inflation, begin much sooner, and include the profits made by the fossil fuel industry. Draft COP agreements must be ready well before the final day, and rules are needed to ensure lobbyists are from companies working on solutions. Also, countries must rapidly submit more ambitious NDCs and delivery plans.

Focus on solutions

As usual, there was a diverse mix of official COP side-events exploring innovative solutions. CAT is a member of the International Network for Sustainable Energy or INFORSE, which promotes the new concept of a global goal of ‘sufficiency’. This investigates the enablers for changing individual and collective lifestyles so that we all can live within planetary boundaries, while simultaneously increasing the wellbeing of citizens, communities and ecosystems.

As solutions scale up, they can change systems. In 2023 the UK green economy grew 9%, which shows that innovation drives employment and prosperity.

In addition, the global installed capacity of photovoltaic (PV) solar has now hit 2 Terawatts, only two years since the 1-Terawatt landmark was reached. The growth rates across this industry have been around 40% for decades and will continue as solar becomes the most cost effective way of producing power in the world.

Delivering the UK vision

As we move forward to COP30, there is an urgent need to pull together around the UK’s commitments for 2035. Targets and goals are important, but these must become actions in our towns, villages, cities and countryside to get us on the path to zero carbon and boost community resilience. The UK can demonstrate genuine leadership, but to deliver change at scale, new skills are vital. The stories shared at COP29 continue to motivate CAT to support the deeply committed groups who visit us. We must all continue to do everything we can as part of an evolving eco-system of positive climate and nature solutions.

About the author

Paul is CAT’s Zero Carbon Britain Knowledge and Outreach Coordinator. He has been involved with our research into zero carbon scenarios since the beginning, coordinating the development of research reports and liaising directly with government, industry, NGOs and the arts to share findings.

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