The agreement reached at COP30 was nowhere near enough, but not a total disaster. Paul Allen from our Zero Carbon Britain Team shares his reflections on the key issues of COP30 and what is needed next. 

Joining online as an official observer, I followed the negotiations and the wide range of events run by the nations, networks and groups which assembled in Belém, Brazil over two weeks in November.

Background to COP30 

The Conference of the Parties or COP negotiations are rooted in the Rio Earth Summit and for the past three decades have brought countries from across the globe together to try to solve the earth’s human induced challenges and deal with their impacts. The key element of this process is that by the end of each year’s negotiations, a consensus much be achieved on the final texts, with all parties signing up to it. After many years of underachieving, the landmark COP21 in Paris agreed that the world would aim to limit global heating to well under 2°C from preindustrial levels and aim for 1.5°C.  

Under the Paris Agreement, each of the 195 countries must increase their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emissions reduction on a 5-year ratchet mechanism. As COP30 marks the second ratchet, by the opening 118 out of 195 countries had offered a new NDC, but together what they offer was nowhere near enough. (NDC Tracker, Climate Watch) 

Another key element of COP30 was the global stocktake. This recognised that the Paris Agreement has driven progress on climate action, but not yet enough to put the world on track to remain well under 2°C or achieve necessary levels of resilience and mobilize and align necessary financial flows. (NDC 3.0, UNFCC)  

So, as the world came together in Belem, the key task to deliver on Paris was to improve the number and ambition of NDC’s, whilst also increasing resources to help countries deal with the rising impacts of extreme weather through adaptation and the global loss and damage fund.

What did COP 30 achieve?

In the run up to each COP the UNEP releases its annual “Emissions Gap Report”. This year it was titled ‘Off Target’ making it clear that we are on course for an escalation of climate risks and damages. (Emission Gap Report 2025, UNEP)  

A key element of COP30 was rise of Indigenous voices. Through protests, marches and a raised profile in media coverage they made it clear that they should have a voice in the negotiations, and a great many do not have rights to access the negotiation halls. Currently Indigenous land is around 13.8% of Brazil, however following the protests during COP30 they announced 10 new indigenous territories following the 11 announced last year. (BBC News)  

Drawing on their culture, the Brazilian presidency invited the world to join a “Mutirão” This was a continuous method of mobilization that remains active beyond COP30. A proposal to transform the conference into a true milestone of civilizational turn: the establishment of spaces for active listening, strengthening the ties between the local and the global, and valuing the diversity of voices and knowledge.  A whole more potent than the sum of all parts.

An important element of COP 30 was the launch of The Declaration on Information Integrity on Climate Change; this offers international commitments to combat climate misinformation and promote accurate climate information. At the launch, the declaration was endorsed by twelve countries, including Brazil, Canada, Chile, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Spain, Sweden, Uruguay, the Netherlands, and Belgium.  

As usual, COP30 closed with a long all night overrun into Saturday morning, driven by a dispute on wording used.  The talks avoided collapse, and a deal was finally agreed by 194 countries to keep the process alive. The UN website offered these commitments: 

• Finance at scale: Mobilise $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 for climate action. 
• Adaptation boost: Double adaptation finance by 2025 and triple by 2035. 
• Loss and damage fund: Operationalisation and replenishment cycles confirmed. 
• New initiatives: Launch of the Global Implementation Accelerator and Belém Mission to 1.5°C to drive ambition and implementation. 
• Climate disinformation: Commitment to promote information integrity and counter false narratives. 

Expectations were high that COP30’s final decision would include explicit reference to phasing out fossil fuels. More than 80 countries backed Brazil’s proposal for a formal ‘roadmap.’  A draft text had included it – until the final hours of talks. The adopted outcome refers only to the ‘UAE Consensus’, the COP28 decision calling for “transitioning away from fossil fuels.” 

COP30 was nowhere near enough, but not a total disaster. It will speed things up, but time is clearly running out. 

What needs to happen after COP30? 

We are at the crossroads of emergency and opportunity, and what we do next will define the future we face. As a trained engineer, it is clear to me that if a system is not working, we must fix it. The UNFCCC needs to recognize its top-down process is not delivering and initiate global workshops to transform the ‘negotiation process’ in advance of COP31. This must include:

• proactive inclusion of indigenous voices from all countries,  
• making it clear who are negotiators and who are lobbyists,  
• rescheduling the program so key decisions are not made during an over-run  
• better link up negotiations across silos to help in multi-solving the switch from fossil fuels while restoring natural systems and preparing for climate impacts.  

Belém was the first climate conference to happen since the International Court of Justice confirmed that governments and corporations have legal duties to protect people and the planet from climate harm. ClientEarth is exploring how legal power can fight greenwashing and push for stronger, enforceable climate laws. 

Future negotiations should also begin rooted in an honest recognition of the numbers on what needs to be achieved by when, with global wellbeing at the heart of the necessary transformation. In his book A Climate of Truth, presented at a recent public lecture at CAT, Mike Berners-Lee made a clear case that the most critical step is to raise honesty in our local, national and international politics including the COP process. Mike highlights the need for honesty “Each of us can have radically more impact on the issues we care about by turning our attention to this simple principal”. The Planetary Science Pavilion at COP30 released an honest statement that the remaining carbon budget is now equivalent to 3-4 years of global emissions at current rate. This should be a key message in opening negotiations at COP31. 

The UN process needs to offer much increased support for actions from communities across the globe. We have the tools, technologies, responsible business models, research and motivation. Building on the Mutirão model, we need to enable active groups to share ideas across the globe, catalysing an acceleration of citizen driven actions.  

We have the solutions, but skills and training are needed to support the transition. CAT is proud to be part of a growing ecosystem of organisations offering the courses and training opportunities needed to accelerate this transformation. 

About the author 

Paul is CAT’s Zero Carbon Britain Knowledge and Outreach Coordinator. He has been involved with our research into zero carbon scenarios since the beginning, coordinating the development of research reports and liaising directly with government, industry, NGOs and the arts to share findings.